While the demographic skew will be in India’s favour in the job market over the next decade and a half, this can turn into an advantage only if our education system can churn out quality workforce, says Chetan Ahya
AMONG the large countries in the world, India will continue to have the best demographic trend as measured in terms of age dependency by ratio of old and children — people under 15 or over 65 to working age population — people 15-64. In simplistic terms, median age in India will rise from 25 years in 2010 to 30 years in 2025 while in China, it will rise from 34 years to 39 years during the period. In the US, Western Europe and Japan, it will rise from 37 years, 42 years and 45 years to 39 years, 46 years and 51 years, respectively. As of 2009, India’s total working age population (age 15 to 64) is likely to hit 765 million, or about 17% of the world’s working age population.
The UN population division estimates that over the next 10 years, India’s working age population is set to grow by a cumulative 138 million — significantly greater than the expected increase of 33 million in China. This compares with an increase of 12 million in the US and declines of eight million and 18 million in Japan and Europe, respectively. A positive demographic trend may be a necessary condition for strong growth, but it is not a sufficient one.
India needs to convert the advantage of having a growing working population into a virtuous loop, creating productive jobs for the expanding workforce, which, in turn, should translate into higher savings, investment and economic growth. To be sure, the government has been gradually initiating reforms to create productive job opportunities, thus lifting GDP growth. A benign globalisation trend has also played a key role in accelerating job creation.
We believe that the quality mix of the fresh additions to the workforce over the next 10 years is likely to be dramatically different. The quality of India’s current workforce is lagging, with 34% of the adult population classed as illiterate (as of 2007). Currently, we estimate that only 7-9% of the population moving into the 15-year-plus age bracket is illiterate. However, we think this ratio could dip to well below 5% over the next few years.
To understand the potential shift in the working age population’s education level, we conducted a proforma simulation of the flow across various education levels. Note that this simulation assumes that the current trends in enrolment, promotion, repetition and dropout rates are maintained/ witness improvement over the coming decade and that there is a commensurate rise in education-related infrastructure.
Our simulation indicates that there could be a steady rise in out-turn of students at all three levels of education: primary, secondary and tertiary. Enrolment rates in primary schools have already witnessed a significant rise over the past few years, both on net and gross basis. The key reason for this improvement has been the success of the government with the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan — that providing universal primary education — programme and the Mid-Day Meal Scheme — under which a free lunch meal is provided to students to encourage them to attend school. Out-of-school children — in the primary age group who are currently not in school — have dropped to around 5.6 million, as per World Bank estimates, in 2007 from 18 million as of 2000.
ADDITIONALLY, the dropout ratio has also witnessed a significant improvement in recent years. According to District Information System for Education (DISE) data, the retention rate — the percentage of students who complete their education — at the primary level has shown a steady improvement over the past three years. It improved to 73.7% in 2007-08 from 58% in 2004-05 and 53% in 2003-04. Our simulation exercise suggests that, if the current trends are maintained, the number of students graduating from primary school each year, or out-turn, could increase from 18 million in 2008 to 20.3 million in 2015, and further to about 21.4 million by 2020.
The impact of this higher enrolment would be felt on out-turn at the secondary level as well. Indeed, secondary enrolment rates have already started to pick up. According to World Bank data, the secondary school gross enrolment rate has picked up to 57% in 2007 from 46.2% in 2000. In India, there are two key secondary education levels: lower secondary with education up to Grade X and higher secondary with education up to Grade XII. Our simulation suggests that lower secondary out-turn could increase from around 7.8 million in 2008 to 11.8 million by 2015, and further to about 14.5 million by 2020. Out-turn at the upper secondary level could also increase from around 5.3 million in 2008 to 9.2 million by 2015 and further to 11.2 million by 2020.
Finally, this improvement would also filter through to the tertiary level. Outturn at the tertiary level could increase from 3.5 million in 2008 to 5.9 million by 2015 and about 7.2 million by 2020, as per our simulation. This would imply an increase in India’s tertiary educated workforce from 48-50 million in 2008 to 116 million by 2020.
With the increased focus of the government and private sector in providing higher education facilities and rising young population, both India and China have already begun to outpace the US, Brazil and Russia. The out-turn of the tertiary graduates in China has been much larger than India due to significantly larger delta in population in the 20-24 age bracket in China compared to India. However, this trend is likely to change over the next few years with India witnessing a larger delta in population in this age bracket compared to China. In others words, by 2020, we believe that India will emerge the largest in the world in terms of annual out-turn of tertiary graduates.
We think government efforts will be critical to achieve our estimates. The availability of infrastructure and teachers will be the key to ensure that the quality of education imparted and the supply of an educated workforce does not suffer or become constrained with the rapid growth. To realise our estimates of growth in primary, secondary and tertiary educated population, the government will need to ensure that there are adequate measures initiated to increase the number of teachers and professors.
(The author is managing director of
Morgan Stanley Research)
Sunday, December 27, 2009
5) The fount of consistency pg 11
JANKI SANTOKE
THE sustainability of action is crucial to success. An individual action, even if well executed, does not achieve goals. The ability to consistently perform is vital to success. Consistency in action derives from a person’s internal attitude. Three kinds of attitudes govern human action: selfish, unselfish and selfless.
Selfish persons act merely to fulfil their personal desires. Their interests, and may be that of their families, are all their mental horizon can encompass. At its most unsophisticated level, selfishness is merely following one’s whims and fancies. To do, at the spur of the moment, what would give one immediate gratification. There is no thinking involved. The capers of such people fill the more popular sections of the society papers. Such people are not achievers. They do not fix goals and discipline themselves into achieving them.
Further down the continuum are the selfish persons who do set goals and achieve them. However their goals pertain only to their personal well-being. Such goals cannot span decades. The pressure of desires necessitates fast results. The intellect being fuzzy, cannot project beyond a point. So consistency over long periods is not possible. The common burn-out syndrome is a manifestation of this attitude. People push themselves to achieve their self-centred goals to the point of collapse. Not only that, they get discouraged if their goals are not achieved quickly.
The unselfish people fix goals ranging a wider spectrum, both in terms of time and persons it will benefit. They can conceive a goal that may take decades to show results. Mother Theresa, Mahatma Gandhi, J R D Tata and the like demonstrated similar long-term perspectives. Today, even after many years, we are still benefiting from their vision. Also, their failures never seemed to bog them down. However, unselfish people also have a boundary. They can conceive up to a point. The identification, though great, ends somewhere, may be at my community / country / species. Though far superior than the selfish, they too are restricted in conception.
Those rare individuals who are totally selfless, who want nothing for either themselves or for the world, can transcend all barriers. They conceive, pursue and achieve the goal of self-realisation which may cut across many lifetimes. Their capacity for consistency is awe-inspiring. Thus a person’s consistency of action is dependant on how high an ideal he is able to conceive. The higher the ideal motivating him, the greater will be the capacity for consistency.
THE sustainability of action is crucial to success. An individual action, even if well executed, does not achieve goals. The ability to consistently perform is vital to success. Consistency in action derives from a person’s internal attitude. Three kinds of attitudes govern human action: selfish, unselfish and selfless.
Selfish persons act merely to fulfil their personal desires. Their interests, and may be that of their families, are all their mental horizon can encompass. At its most unsophisticated level, selfishness is merely following one’s whims and fancies. To do, at the spur of the moment, what would give one immediate gratification. There is no thinking involved. The capers of such people fill the more popular sections of the society papers. Such people are not achievers. They do not fix goals and discipline themselves into achieving them.
Further down the continuum are the selfish persons who do set goals and achieve them. However their goals pertain only to their personal well-being. Such goals cannot span decades. The pressure of desires necessitates fast results. The intellect being fuzzy, cannot project beyond a point. So consistency over long periods is not possible. The common burn-out syndrome is a manifestation of this attitude. People push themselves to achieve their self-centred goals to the point of collapse. Not only that, they get discouraged if their goals are not achieved quickly.
The unselfish people fix goals ranging a wider spectrum, both in terms of time and persons it will benefit. They can conceive a goal that may take decades to show results. Mother Theresa, Mahatma Gandhi, J R D Tata and the like demonstrated similar long-term perspectives. Today, even after many years, we are still benefiting from their vision. Also, their failures never seemed to bog them down. However, unselfish people also have a boundary. They can conceive up to a point. The identification, though great, ends somewhere, may be at my community / country / species. Though far superior than the selfish, they too are restricted in conception.
Those rare individuals who are totally selfless, who want nothing for either themselves or for the world, can transcend all barriers. They conceive, pursue and achieve the goal of self-realisation which may cut across many lifetimes. Their capacity for consistency is awe-inspiring. Thus a person’s consistency of action is dependant on how high an ideal he is able to conceive. The higher the ideal motivating him, the greater will be the capacity for consistency.
4) Life is beyond your logic ET pg 10
PARAMAHAMSA NITHYANANDA
MOST of us unconsciously believe that life is filled with incidents that are under the control of our logic. But life again and again reminds you of the truth that life is beyond your logic. You are reminded of this fact, especially when some near and dear friend dies or when something unexpected happens. If you lose your job, suddenly you see that life is not under your control. You wake up to the reality that life is beyond your logic. Then you start seeking the Truth.
Especially if you live in the city, your routine is almost fixed. From morning until night, you know exactly how your day will unfold. You know where you will go, what you will do or not do, and what and when you will eat. Practically, your ego gives an idea, your logic gives you the feeling that your life is under the control of your logic. That is why whenever some incident happens that is beyond your logic that is not under your control, you are totally shaken. You are not able to handle it. You don’t know what to do. Either you fall into depression or you just suffer.
There is an important truth, an ultimate secret that you must understand. Never think things are going smoothly because of you. In spite of you, things are going smoothly! This is one of the important secrets. As long as you believe it is because of you that things are going smoothly, you will be constantly suffering with ego.
Death clearly shows that whatever mind you lived with has no real existence. The moment you experience that there is nothing to be achieved, that the diamonds you are protecting are not diamonds but stones, and that all your valuable possessions in life are mere toys, you will understand the purposelessness of life and a new consciousness starts blossoming in you.
The genuine purpose of life cannot be understood without dropping our ego. Understand the divine purpose of life, the leelas or the Divine play; you will enjoy the drama. If you keep thinking that life has a purpose and wait to achieve something, you will miss life itself.
Life itself is the path and the goal. When you have a goal, you will run; your feet will not touch the ground and you will miss the beauty of Existence or nature. When you drop the goal, the emphasis will be on the path.
The meaning of living is the meaning of life or Existence. Drop the goal and enjoy life. Meditate on this teaching again and again. The Truth will dawn on you and the nithyananda (bliss) state will flower in you, the state that is the very meaning of life. Be Blissful!
MOST of us unconsciously believe that life is filled with incidents that are under the control of our logic. But life again and again reminds you of the truth that life is beyond your logic. You are reminded of this fact, especially when some near and dear friend dies or when something unexpected happens. If you lose your job, suddenly you see that life is not under your control. You wake up to the reality that life is beyond your logic. Then you start seeking the Truth.
Especially if you live in the city, your routine is almost fixed. From morning until night, you know exactly how your day will unfold. You know where you will go, what you will do or not do, and what and when you will eat. Practically, your ego gives an idea, your logic gives you the feeling that your life is under the control of your logic. That is why whenever some incident happens that is beyond your logic that is not under your control, you are totally shaken. You are not able to handle it. You don’t know what to do. Either you fall into depression or you just suffer.
There is an important truth, an ultimate secret that you must understand. Never think things are going smoothly because of you. In spite of you, things are going smoothly! This is one of the important secrets. As long as you believe it is because of you that things are going smoothly, you will be constantly suffering with ego.
Death clearly shows that whatever mind you lived with has no real existence. The moment you experience that there is nothing to be achieved, that the diamonds you are protecting are not diamonds but stones, and that all your valuable possessions in life are mere toys, you will understand the purposelessness of life and a new consciousness starts blossoming in you.
The genuine purpose of life cannot be understood without dropping our ego. Understand the divine purpose of life, the leelas or the Divine play; you will enjoy the drama. If you keep thinking that life has a purpose and wait to achieve something, you will miss life itself.
Life itself is the path and the goal. When you have a goal, you will run; your feet will not touch the ground and you will miss the beauty of Existence or nature. When you drop the goal, the emphasis will be on the path.
The meaning of living is the meaning of life or Existence. Drop the goal and enjoy life. Meditate on this teaching again and again. The Truth will dawn on you and the nithyananda (bliss) state will flower in you, the state that is the very meaning of life. Be Blissful!
3) THE SPEAKING TREE TOI 17 dec 09
A Holistic View Of Life Essential For Survival
Discourse: Acharya Mahaprajna
There are two limits to knowledge. One set by the intellect and the other set by experience. The comprehensive way to meditation and penance is experience, not intellectualisation. Intellectuals might argue against this, for the nature of the intellect is to argue. Those who practise meditation and restraint do not use only logic and intellect as the touchstone. Their path is paved with experience. The one who has tasted the sweetness of experience will know there can be no other viable route. This is an optimistic perspective. It is possible that one who prefers going the intellect way might find this perspective pessimistic. Logic has its own path, which can become complicated but the path of experience is less complicated.
A head clerk told the other clerks, “During office hours you go for a shave and that takes a long time. Do not shave during office hours.” One clerk replied, “When hair can grow during office hours, why can’t they be cut also at that time. If you find a way of stopping hair growth during office hours, we will also not cut it during office hours.” This is the language of logic. Those who live within the limits of the intellect and logic speak this language. There are three limits. One is that set by the consciousness of the senses. The other is set by the consciousness of the mind. The third is set by the consciousness of the intellect. We have experienced the limits of all these three. Till experience does not enter the limits of the conscious, everything seems as above. One who has not experienced meditation cannot enter the field of experience.
Those who have sat down for meditation for the first time say this after 10 days – that they could never have imagined such an experience was possible. When there was no question of imagination, how could they have imagined?
How can a man sitting on the shores of an ocean estimate its depth? Only the one who has dived into the ocean can describe its depths. Many spend their lives knowing just their outer self. They never get an opportunity to go within. Are they able to see all that is within? They do not know what lies within. Many of those who see the body get scared on seeing its vibrations. Where have they come from? Are they something new? They are not new. They were all within. They are constantly working. The energy of the body is also working. But as we concentrate we get to know of them and get scared. We are faced with a new world. The vibrations were on even earlier but we were not aware of them. As soon as the mind gets more stabilised, the inner self emerges clearer.
We need to engage more with the inner world. We should be less obsessed with what others do and pay more attention to our selves. Only then will there be opportunities for major changes in our consciousness that will enhance our personality. If the transformation were to continue, then there is the further possibility that we could reach the final point. Our perspective should become more and more gentle and the perspective of anekanta should always be with us. We need to work towards promoting a balanced and mutually connected individual, local and global perspective with equanimity, taking into account every possible view. That is, giving equal consideration to all things, howsoever small or big.
Put together by Lalit Garg.
Discourse: Acharya Mahaprajna
There are two limits to knowledge. One set by the intellect and the other set by experience. The comprehensive way to meditation and penance is experience, not intellectualisation. Intellectuals might argue against this, for the nature of the intellect is to argue. Those who practise meditation and restraint do not use only logic and intellect as the touchstone. Their path is paved with experience. The one who has tasted the sweetness of experience will know there can be no other viable route. This is an optimistic perspective. It is possible that one who prefers going the intellect way might find this perspective pessimistic. Logic has its own path, which can become complicated but the path of experience is less complicated.
A head clerk told the other clerks, “During office hours you go for a shave and that takes a long time. Do not shave during office hours.” One clerk replied, “When hair can grow during office hours, why can’t they be cut also at that time. If you find a way of stopping hair growth during office hours, we will also not cut it during office hours.” This is the language of logic. Those who live within the limits of the intellect and logic speak this language. There are three limits. One is that set by the consciousness of the senses. The other is set by the consciousness of the mind. The third is set by the consciousness of the intellect. We have experienced the limits of all these three. Till experience does not enter the limits of the conscious, everything seems as above. One who has not experienced meditation cannot enter the field of experience.
Those who have sat down for meditation for the first time say this after 10 days – that they could never have imagined such an experience was possible. When there was no question of imagination, how could they have imagined?
How can a man sitting on the shores of an ocean estimate its depth? Only the one who has dived into the ocean can describe its depths. Many spend their lives knowing just their outer self. They never get an opportunity to go within. Are they able to see all that is within? They do not know what lies within. Many of those who see the body get scared on seeing its vibrations. Where have they come from? Are they something new? They are not new. They were all within. They are constantly working. The energy of the body is also working. But as we concentrate we get to know of them and get scared. We are faced with a new world. The vibrations were on even earlier but we were not aware of them. As soon as the mind gets more stabilised, the inner self emerges clearer.
We need to engage more with the inner world. We should be less obsessed with what others do and pay more attention to our selves. Only then will there be opportunities for major changes in our consciousness that will enhance our personality. If the transformation were to continue, then there is the further possibility that we could reach the final point. Our perspective should become more and more gentle and the perspective of anekanta should always be with us. We need to work towards promoting a balanced and mutually connected individual, local and global perspective with equanimity, taking into account every possible view. That is, giving equal consideration to all things, howsoever small or big.
Put together by Lalit Garg.
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